India’s Sugar Output May Beat Estimates, Survey Shows

. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Sugar production in India, the world’s second-largest grower, may be 11 percent more than estimated after farmers boosted planting and yields improved because of increased fertilizer use.

Output may jump to 17.68 million metric tons in the season started Oct. 1, according to interviews with 631 farmers across six states by Geneva-based SGS SA for Bloomberg. The farm ministry andthe Indian Sugar Mills Association have estimated 16 million tons. The SGS figure for the previous year was 16.1 million tons, which compares with 14.7 million tons estimated by the government and the mills.

A bigger harvest may help the country pare its reliance on imports and curb the 90 percent rally in global prices this year. A shortage turned India, the biggest consumer, into a net buyer for the first time since 2006 and sent prices to a 28-year high in September.

“If India’s production turns out to be better than expected because of higher recovery and yield, it could prove to be mildly bearish for prices,” saidLeonardo Bichara Rocha, an economist at the London-based International Sugar Organization.

India’s cane harvest this year may increase 9.8 percent to 297.95 million tons, bolstered by a 3.8 percent gain in acreage and a 5.7 percent rise in yield because of better irrigation and fertilizer application, the SGS survey showed. That’s more than the 249.5 million tons predicted by the government. The SGS survey by five teams between Oct. 20 and Nov. 3 covered six main cane-growing states including Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra, the biggest producers.

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India’s Sugar Output May Beat Estimates, Survey Shows